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The Big Answer


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The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened

a book by Susan Crockford

(our site's book review)

Polar Bears Are Not Endangered!

The Amazon blurb says that The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened explains why the catastrophic decline in polar bear numbers we were promised in 2007 failed to materialize. It’s the story of how and why the polar bear came to be considered 'Threatened' with extinction, and tracks its rise and fall as an icon of the global warming movement.

Polar Bear - Alaska (cropped)
Polar Bears Are Not Endangered!

The book also tells the story of Crockford’s role in bringing that failure to public attention and the backlash against her that ensued – and why, among all others who have attempted to do so previously, she was uniquely positioned to do so. In general, this is a cautionary tale of scientific hubris and of scientific failure, of researchers staking their careers on untested computer simulations and later obfuscating inconvenient facts.

Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the middle 21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario. This scenario assumes that no future policies are adopted to limit greenhouse gas emissions
Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the middle 21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario. This scenario assumes that no future policies are adopted to limit greenhouse gas emissions

Scientists Tried to Conceal Population Growth of Polar Bears

For the first time, you'll see a frank and detailed account of attempts by scientists to conceal population growth as numbers rose from an historical low in the 1960s to the astonishing highs that surely must exist after almost 50 years of protection from overhunting. There is also a blunt account of what truly abundant populations of bears mean for the millions of people who live and work in areas of the Arctic inhabited by polar bears.

Crockford tells us "The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) became the first species ever to be classified as threatened with extinction based on predictions of future climate change rather than current population status. ,. . . ‘Cannibalism demonstrates the effect on bears,’ said Kassie Siegel, lead author of the petition. . . . ‘It’s very important new information,’ she said. ‘It shows in a really graphic way how severe the problem of global warming is for polar bears.’ [Actually,] . . . cannibalism was relatively common in polar bears, even when sea ice conditions were good."

'What could possibly cause all this melting ice? My money's on all those long, hot stinkers you've been letting! Pee-yew! I mean, what else could it be?'
'What could possibly cause all this melting ice? My money's on all those long, hot stinkers you've been letting! Pee-yew! I mean, what else could it be?'

Al Gore Was Tricked by Obfuscating Scientists into Reporting a False Story about Polar Bears

In 2007, Al Gore’s Oscar-winning documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, featured Alaska’s drowning polar bears, allegedly doomed to extinction because of human fossil-fuel use. Few could manage to talk about global warming without mentioning polar bears or at least include an image of one. The really Inconvenient Truth, however was that his words about these bears was based on hyperbole from the media, obfuscating scientists trying to save their jobs, and PR from environmental groups, not hard science. The same thing is true of the hockey stick graph he displayed. What it purports to "prove" is disputed and denied by many of the world's most eminent scientists.

“Today most scientists dismiss the hockey stick.”—Dr Madhav Khandekar, retired meteorologist, formerly with Environment Canada (over 50 years in weather and climate science)

T comp 61-90
"Today most scientists dismiss the hockey stick.”—Dr Madhav Khandekar, retired meteorologist

The reason the exposed fakers like Michael E Mann would never say die and never admit their scam was that the liberal narratives, whether about political correctness, blacks are victims and whites are victimizers, or the climate alarmist narrative, were to be believed without question. If you doubted political correctness, blacks are victims and whites are victimizers, or the climate alarmist narrative, you were in danger of Antifa attacks, intimidation, doxing, trolling, assaults, career ruining, reputation ruining, and harrassment of all kinds—which is why most scientists got on record that they supported the climate alarmist position. They wanted to keep their jobs and not be harrassed. The climate alarmists' position that said their ideas were "settled science" was not even close to being true, in an atmosphere of science fakery, intimidation, data tampering, data hiding, and litigation. See "A Disgrace to the Profession".


The Predicters of Polar Bear Decline Were Guessing—It Wasn''t Science

"Insofar as the listing [of polar bears as Threatened] is based upon climate models, ice-melt projections, and assumptions about the effects of habitat loss on the bear’s prospects for survival in the wild, its scientific basis is quite speculative."—Jonathan Adler

It was all based on computer-modelled predictions of sea ice loss and a set of assumptions regarding polar bear responses to that habitat loss, but not the reality of statistics gotten from counting bears and bear kills. So the hyperbole continued: "catastrophic declines in the global population of polar bears by 2050 as a direct effect of crossing a particular threshold of sea ice loss."

"Polar bears are likely to lose 42% of their summer sea ice habitat by mid-century, cutting the world’s polar bear population – estimated at 25,000 – by two-thirds."—US Geological Survey (this wild-ass guess turned out to be very wrong)

Polar bears near north pole
Polar bears inspect submarine

The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, in easy to understand language, and with robust science, demonstrates that the polar bear population has most likely risen from 10,000 to 40,000 in recent decades, despite big decreases in Arctic summer ice. This defies the predictions from climate alarmists which expected the exact opposite. Summer ice decrease doesn’t harm polar bears—they adjust, as they have for millions of years. The book aptly covers the polar bear role as a now-failed symbol of impending extinction from climate change, of the use of invalid climate models, of biased press coverage and fake news, and of the fraudulent listing of the polar bear as a "threatened" species through the machinations of a top government scientists, and the hostility and dishonesty of some polar bear experts getting a new lease on life from the flow of money to climate alarmists.


The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened Outlines How Politics Has Ruined Science and Journalism

The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened outlines how politics has ruined science and journalism, and this is an important example of just how it happens. Hint: money, reputation, keeping one's job, and sustaining the liberal narrative's climate alarmist narrative to avoid harrassment, doxxing, trolls, and reputation ruination. The polar bears are doing just fine—the fear mongering and alarmism created by the environmentalists is about politics, money, conformity to the CW, and cowardice. It is not about science like they claim.

Polar Bears Play fight
Polar Bears Play fight

Zoologist and Evolutionary Biologist Susan Crockford says that warmer temperatures in the Arctic allows more seals to give birth in areas that provide good hunting for bears, so a warmer Arctic climate should allow polar bears to thrive and gain in numbers. In fact, Crockford shows that exactly that has occurred in most of the 17 or so subpopulations of polar bears over the last two decades. So global warming helps the bears eat better. It doesn't push them to extinction. Good for Crockford for spreading truth as opposed to climate alarmist narrative hyperbole and PR! The book puts the science back into climate studies, filtering out the politics. Unsurprisingly, it varies greatly from popular culture reporting on the topic. The book demonstrates how hostile and prejudiced the "climate change" community can be, they have smeared the author with personal attacks for not toeing the party line and conforming to the CW.

“Ice levels during the key feeding period in Spring have been good, and prey species have been abundant. It’s not really a surprise that polar bears are doing so well. And in the Southern Beaufort Sea, the one area where polar bear numbers have fallen, the reason appears to be too much sea ice rather than too little." “The fearmongering from the media and the polar bear specialists is now backfiring”, says Crockford. “They convinced the world that polar bears were doomed but the facts got out. Now would be a good time to set the story straight.” (Source: New Report: Polar Bears Are Thriving, Global Warming Policy Foundation, THEGWPF)

What a sweet kid—after I've eaten the fish, I think I'll try him (I wonder if he tastes as sweet as he acts! If so, I'll rename Eskimo kids to Eskimo Pies!)
What a sweet kid—after I've eaten the fish, I think I'll try him (I wonder if he tastes as sweet as he acts! If so, I'll rename Eskimo kids to Eskimo Pies!)

Overly pessimistic media responses to recent polar bear issues have made heartbreaking news out of scientifically insignificant events, suggesting an attempt is being made to restore the status of this failed global warming icon—the polar bear.


Polar Bears Are Thriving, Making Them Phony Icons, and False Idols, for Global Warming Alarmists

"One powerful polar bear fact is slowly rising above the message of looming catastrophe repeated endlessly by the media . . . . polar bear numbers have been stable or slightly improved. The polar bear’s resilience should have meant the end of its use as a cherished icon of global warming doom, but it didn’t. The alarmism is not going away without a struggle. . . . The failure of the [pessimistic] 2007 polar bear survival model is a simple fact that explodes the myth that polar bears are on their way to extinction. Although starving-bear videos and scientifically insignificant research papers still make the news, they don’t alter the facts: Polar bears are thriving, making them phony icons, and false idols, for global warming alarmists." (Source: Polar bears keep thriving even as global warming alarmists keep pretending they’re dying, Susan Crockford, Financial Post)

Ursus maritimus us fish
Baby polar bears

"The heartbreaking story of dying polar bears, told for more than a decade now, was meant to get kids on board the global warming action train. It worked great – except that it was never true. The lie gave sensitive children nightmares and turned others into political activists full of groundless outrage who now pointlessly rant in the streets." (Source: Stop lying to children about dying polar bears as a way to achieve action on climate change, Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science)


Global Warming Alarmists Tried Unsuccessfully to Intimidate Crockford into Silence About the Embarrassing Truth

The global warming alarmists tried to intimidate Crockford into silence. But she wouldn't cooperate with their embarrassing fraud. "Researcher says attempts to silence her have failed. Polar bear numbers could easily exceed 40,000, up from a low point of 10,000 or fewer in the 1960s. Crockford also describes how, despite the good news, polar bear specialists have consistently tried to low-ball polar bear population figures. They have also engaged in a relentless smear campaign in an attempt to silence her in order to protect the story of a polar bear catastrophe, and the funding that comes with it." (Source: Inconvenient: Polar Bear Numbers May Have Quadrupled, Anthony Watts, wattsupwiththat)

Many people are happy about the disappearing sea ice, although it's too late for these folks
Many people are happy about the disappearing sea ice, although it's too late for these folks

" . . . biologists of the Polar Bear Specialist Group predicted in 2007-8 that shrinking polar sea ice would reduce the number of polar bears by 30% by 2050. In 2008 the US Geological Survey predicted that shrinking polar sea ice would reduce the number of polar bears by two-thirds by 2050." [These predictions, based on hunches about sea ice, turned out very wrong, which unscientific hunches often do.] " . . . the hypothesis that repeated summer sea ice levels of below 5 mkm2 will cause significant population declines in polar bears is rejected, a result that indicates the ESA [Endangered Species Act] and IUCN {International Union for the Conservation of Nature] judgments to list polar bears as threatened based on future risks of habitat loss were scientifically unfounded and that similar predictions for Arctic seals and walrus may be likewise flawed." (Source: About polar bears and science on the front lines of the global warming debate., Larry Kummer, wattsupwiththat)

Endangered arctic - starving polar bear
Starving polar bear

"Once upon a time, stories of polar bears starving to death were regular features of environmental and science 'reporting.' The fuzzy fur-balls of ferocity were the beloved icons for the crusade against global warming. However, they have been seemingly absent from recent 'climate change' discussions. Could this be due to rapidly increasing number of polar bears, a fact which counters all the doom-and-gloom assertions made by supposed experts?" (Source: Narrative Fail: Polar bears vanish . . . from media as their population explodes, Leslie Eastman , Legal Insurrection)


The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Has Predicted about Twice as Much Warming as Has Occurred

It isn't only polar bear science that climate alarmists get wrong. And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong. Models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago…”

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data offers evidence of a decline in tornadoes' strength since warming started—Dorothy and Toto are safe!
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data offers evidence of a decline in tornadoes' strength since warming started—Dorothy and Toto are safe!

“On June 23, 1988, NASA scientist James E. Hansen testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, where he expressed his 'high degree of confidence' in 'a cause-and-effect relationship between the claimed CO2 induced 'greenhouse effect and observed warming.' . . . Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000. . . . And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong. Models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago. . . . "

"Several more of Mr. Hansen’s predictions can now be judged by history. "Have hurricanes gotten stronger, as James Hansen predicted in a 2016 study? No. Satellite data from 1970 onward shows no evidence of this in relation to global surface temperature. Have storms caused increasing amounts of damage in the U.S.? Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show no such increase in damage, measured as a percentage of gross domestic product. How about stronger tornadoes? The opposite may be true, as NOAA data offers some evidence of a decline. The list of what didn’t happen is long and tedious. On the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s galvanizing testimony, it’s time to acknowledge that the rapid warming he predicted isn’t happening.” (Source: Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?, Anthony Watts, wattsupwiththat)

‘New Scientist’ Admits Polar Bears Not in Decline, by Dr Susan J Crockford, says New Scientist acknowledges that polar bear numbers have not declined in recent years even though summer sea ice dropped dramatically.